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2006 / Semester 1
Microeconomía I (Intermediate Microeconomics, Undergrad.)
Economía II (Intermediate Microeconomics, Undergrad.)
2005 / Semester 2
Econometría (Econometrics, Undergrad.)
Microeconomía I (Intermediate Microeconomics, Undergrad.)
Análisis de Industria (Microeconomics for Managers, MBA)
Working papers
1) The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the Expected Performance of the Economy.
By using data from surveys of expectations, it is shown that macroeconomic uncertainty, measured by the standard deviation of the expected growth rate of output, the expected unemployment rate, and the expected inflation rate, is negatively related to the expected performance of the economy, proxied by the expected growth rate of output. That is, forward-looking agents are more uncertain about the future development of output, unemployment, and inflation when the growth rate of output is expected to fall, and they are less uncertain when this growth rate is expected to increase. The findings call for more aggressive polices when confronting expected downturns, and they would also indicate that the pattern of uncertainty found in this study would be associated with asymmetric output response to macroeconomic policies.
2) Asymmetric Business Cycle: The Role of Capital.
I show that the standard stochastic growth model augmented with an endogenous depreciation rate can generate asymmetric business cycle. In particular, numerical simulations show a negatively skewed distribution of output in response to random technology shocks. This asymmetry gives rise to a negative relationship between output uncertainty and the expected performance of the economy as empirically found in Sepulveda (2003).
3) Capital Controls in a Small Open Economy.
A capital control in the form of a tax on international borrowing is incorporated into a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model and calibrated with data from the Chilean economy for the period 1986-2000. Results show that the control is not successful in decreasing the relative variability of the main economic variables that the policy maker cares about. A 70-percent tax would be needed in order to decrease the relative variability of consumption by 1-percent. The results are in line with several econometric studies that question the efficacy of the capital controls imposed by Chile during the nineties.
4) Asymmetric Business Cycle: The Role of Labor.
The idea here is to see whether similar results as in number 3 can be obtained by emphasizing labor adjustment costs.
Preliminary results show that that is the case.
Work in Progress
- Multiple Funds in Private Pension Funds, Are Managers still risk averse to herd? (With Jose Olivares)
- Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Banks Asset Allocation: The case of Chile
